Signals for CINF, BEN, CARR, VGT

Today our systems created four signals: three sell signals and one buy signals.

Reduce: Cincinatti Financial Corporation

Based on the sell signal for Cincinatti Financal Corporation (CINF) we reduced our position at an average price per share of USD 71.12. With average unit costs of USD 55.70 this represents a gain of 27.68%, a very good result.

The previous sell signal was on Thursday, 04 June 2020, at a price of USD 64.3017 (see blog post).

We started this position in 2016 and increase and reduced our holding several times since then to make use of good buying and selling opportunities.

Reduce: Franklin Resources

And another sell signal for Franklin Resources (BEN). We already reduced this position somewhat on Friday, 05 June 2020 (see our post), at a price of USD 22.68.

Today we reduced it further at an average price per share of USD 24.2850. With unit costs of about USD 16.46, this means a gain of 47.54%. This is quite satisfactory.

This position was started in 2016. We added and reduced this position several times to seize good opportunities.

Reduce: Carrier Global Corporation

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) has seen several sell signals recently (see our blog posts here, here and here). We started this position in April 2020 and increased several times in that month. In May our systems started to created sell signals, so we reduce our position several times.

Today we sold at an average price per share of USD 24.2850. With unit costs of USD 13.32 we realized a gain of 82.32%, which is a very satisfactory result.

Add: Vanguard Information Tech ETF

To increase our exposure to the technology sector we started the position in Vanguard Information Tech EFT (VGT) earlier this month. Today we added at an average price of USD 271.96.

Like all other holdings mentioned in this post, we see VGT as a long-term investment, although we may choose to follow our system's signals to increase or decrease respectively.

Disclaimer

Past results have no bearing for future results. Keep in mind that we do not accept any responsibility for your investment decisions. Do your own research and due diligence and consult with your financial advisor before making decisions. Any investment vehicle mentioned on this site is used for illustration purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sell signals for AFL, CARR, CINF, LEG

Reduce: Aflac

Several sell signals were created today for positions in our portfolio. The first one being Aflac (AFL). We started this position in 2016, reduced it somewhat in 2019 and then increased it again on a couple of occasions. Based on today's signal we reduced the position at an average price of USD 39.0912. The unit costs were at USD 32.321. This represents a gain of 20.95%. A good result.

AFL being a dividend aristocrats we continue to see the company as a long-term investment. Based on signals from our systems we may or may not increase or decrease our position.

Reduce: Carrier Global Corporation

Yet another sell signal was created for Carrier Global Corporation (CAR). The stock continues to perform quite well relative to the stock market. As a result, our systems are reducing this position. This time we sold at an average price of USD 22.64. With unit costs at 13.566 this represents a gain of 66.89%. This, too, is quite satisfactory result.

CARR is a dividend aristocrat as well. We continue to see it as a long-term investment. As with the other stocks mentioned in this post we may or may not increase or decrease this position in the future.

Reduce: Cincinatti Financial Corporation

The next sell signal was for Cincinatty Financial Corporation (CINF). We've had this position since 2016. Since then there were several sell and buy signals. Most recently there were buy signals at prices of USD 60.82, USD 55.80 and USD 53.9585 in May.

We reduced our position at an average price of USD 64.3017. With average unit costs of USD 55.70 this represents a gain of 15.44%. Given the cirumstances in the last few months this is a good result.

As mentioned above CINF is a long-term investment but we may increase or decrease the position in the future.

Reduce: Leggett & Platt Inc

The final sell signal for today was for Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG). This stock is also quite interesting in terms of the signals over the last couple of months. On 2nd April a buy signal was created at USD 23.95 followed by a sequence of sell signals in the same month, each of them at increasingly higher prices from USD 27.03 up to USD 36.02.

Then on 11 May another buy signal was generated at USD 28.52. Since then there were several sell signals, again with increasing prices from USD 30.31 up to USD 35.57 today.

With unit costs of USD 28.52 today's sell represents a gain of 24.72%. Again, a very good result.

Leggett & Platt Inc is a dividend aristocrat, too. We see it as a long-term investment and will continue to keep this position, reducing or increasing if the right opportunity presents itself.

Disclaimer

Keep in mind that we do not accept any responsibility for your investment decisions. Do your own research and due diligence and consult with your financial advisor before making decisions. Any investment vehicle mentioned on this site is used for illustration purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sell Signals for CARR and AMCR

Carrier Global Corporation

Our systems produced a couple of sell signals for Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) beginning of this week. We started this position early April this year and increased it throughout that month.

Based on the sell signal we reduced our position at an average price of USD 21.685. With a unit price of USD 14.37 this represents a gain of 50.9%, which we think is quite satisfactory.

We continue to keep a position in CARR and intend to take further action based on whether our systems create sell or buy signals.

Amcor Plc

Similarly, our systems created a sell signal for Amcor Plc (AMCR) this week. We started this position early March 2020 and have increased it until end of that month.

Throughout April and May there were several sell signals and we reduced our position to some extent on both occasions. Based on this week's sell signal we reduced our position further at an average share price of USD 10.34. As our unit price is currently about USD 9.24, this represents a gain of USD 11.9%. Again, given we have held this position only since March, this, too, is a quite satisfactory result.

Our systems may create further buy or sell signals for AMCR. At that time we may or may not increase or decrease our position again. As with CARR we continue to hold a long-term position in AMCR.

Disclaimer

Keep in mind, that we do not accept any responsibility for your investment decisions. Do your own due diligence and consult with your financial advisor before making decisions. Any investment vehicle mentioned on this site is used for illustration purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Rebalancing 21 May 2020

For almost all decisions regarding increasing or decreasing a position in our US portfolio we use a proprietary software. Today, this resulted in the following changes.

We reduced our position in Lowe's (LOW) at a price of about USD 120.79 per share. The average unit costs for the shares was USD 96.45. This represents a capital gain of about 25%. This is a satisfactory result for a position that we started in August 2019 only.

Again, we also reduced our position in Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) at a price of about USD 19.29 per share. The average unit costs for these shares was USD 14.465, so this is a capital gain of a little over 33%. This, too, is a very good result given this position started only on 03 April. The CARR position is quite interesting in that between 03 April 2020 and 28 April 2020 our software suggested increasing this position several times at price up to about USD 16.90. From 30 April our systems started to create several sell signal with prices starting at USD 17.68 and then increasing to USD 19.29 today.

One of the position swe increased today was Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). We started this position on 15 May and increased it several times including today. As of today the average unit costs are at about USD 95.70. As always we intend to hold this position for at least 10 years if not longer, although we may increase or decrease over time based on our algorithms.

Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) was the other position we incresed today at a price of about USD 46.10. This is also an interesting position in that our systems created several sell signals between 19 March 2020 and 02 April 2020 at prices between USD 46.70 and USD 48.50. Today our algorithms changed its mind and send a buy signal.

Reducing CARR; Increasing XLK

Rebalancing

As part of the continuous rebalancing of our US portfolio, today we reduced our position in Carrier Global Corporation. The position was started early on 03 April 2020 when Ratheon and United Technologies (UTX) merged into Ratheon Technologies (RTX) and at the same time spun off Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) and Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS). Since this spin-off we added more shares in CARR. Today we sold some CARR shares at USD 18.51. With unit costs at about USD 14.46 this represents a gain of about +28%. An excellent yield for a holding period of about 7 weeks.

With the proceeds we increased our position in SPDR Select Selector Fund - Technology (XLK), which we had started on 15 May 2020. The reason we added XLK to the portfolio was the observation that over the last few years growth stocks and in particular technology stocks outperformed value stocks. Dividend Aristocrats are a very solid base investment and represent value stocks.

We picked the technology sector as by and large the age of internet, cloud, Artificial Intelligence (AI), big data and [insert your favorite technology buzz word here] has barely started. Previous technical revolutions such as the industrial revolution or the Age of Steam had what Carlota Perez calls an "Installation Phase" followed by the turning point. We agree with Perez in that we have most likely have reached that turning point for the Age of Information and Telecommunications. We believe that for the next few decades technology companies should be well positioned to benefit from what we think is a long-term trend. Companies such as Amazon, Google or Microsoft are just the beginning. There are many more to follow.

To spread out the risk and only gradually add technology stocks we decided to utilize an Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) to start this position. At some point we may decide to add more direct investments in technology companies to our portfolio. As of writing we already have positions in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Atlassian (TEAM), Nvidia (NVDA), Texas Instruments (TXN) and similar more.

Do not assume, though, that we are moving away from dividend aristocrats. Instead we believe that those still represent a very sold core investment. Therefore we continue to own shares in all 66 dividend aristocrats. We simply are "spicing up" the portfolio with some investments in the technology sector where we believe we have a sufficient understanding of the long-term opportunities of the company in terms of benefitting from the Age of Information and Telecommunications.

By mixing in some technology stocks to the dividend aristocrats we expect the performance of our overall portfolio to be between dividend aristocrats alone and the S&P 500. In other words, we expect our specific portfolio structure to perform better than the dividend aristocrats alone.

References

For more information about the work of Carlota Perez in particular her book "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" see her web site at http://www.carlotaperez.org/

We do not receive any benefits from any of the source listed in references.