Friday, March 15, 2019

Shopping List March 2019 (Beta)

As an experiment, we want to provide on a monthly basis a list of dividend aristocrats from the S&P 500, that we believe are more attractive in relative terms than all other dividend aristocrats. At Optarix we call this list our "shopping list". To determine what goes on the list we are using a combination of price/earning ratio (P/E ratio) and dividend yield that is then translated into a score.

The list for March 2019 looks as follows:

Rank
Name
Ticker
Price (USD)
P/E ratio
Yield
1
AT&T Inc.
T
30.67
8.713
6.74%
2
AbbVie Inc.
ABBV
81.34
10.283
5.35%
3
Cardinal Health Inc
CAH
50.27
10.473
3.75%
4
People’s United Financial Inc
PBCT
17.36
13.252
4.01%
5
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
80.15
16.094
4.08%
6
Franklin Resources Inc.
BEN
33.32
10.413
3.20%
7
Chevron Corporation
CVX
125.31
15.963
3.82%

As a reference: As of writing the S&P 500 (SPX) stands at 2,822.48 and the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats stands at 1,187.79.

The intention is to publish our shopping list on a regular basis and then revisit the list in the future.

How To Use The Shopping List
At Optarix we use this shopping list to compile a shortlist of positions we consider adding or increasing in our portfolio. At present we have shares in all of the above except for People's United Financial and Chevron. So we may choose to add these or we may choose to increase our positions in any of the other five over the next five months.

If you wish, you could use this list in different ways:
  1. To start a portfolio, invest an equal amount in each of these seven stocks
  2. If you have a diversified portfolio already, you can use this list to pick one or several to your portfolio
  3. If you have all of them in your portfolio already, then you could consider adding to one or several of these seven positions in your portfolio
Please note that there are several other factors that you may want to consider.

If you choose to start a new position, buy the stock only with an intention to keep them for at least 10 years. At Optarix our preferred holding period is "indefinitely".

The stocks in the shopping list are attractive on our view relative to the other dividend aristocrats in the S&P 500. We cannot say - in fact nobody can - how these stocks will perform in the future, relatively or absolutely. In particular we cannot make any predictions for these stocks as a group or for any of these individual stocks.

We believe, though, that all dividend aristocrats as a group represent a good, long-term investment and should see satisfactory average yearly returns over the next 10 years and beyond. "average yearly returns" means for any give year we may even see a negative return, e.g. the stock market may decrease a large percentage. Keep in mind that in the first decade of the century, the S&P 500 was down by over 60% year-on-year at a point.

You need to do your own due diligence. This post is not investment advice. If you choose to use the information in this post for inspiration and then go on doing more research on your own, then great! The stocks in the shopping list are a great fit for some portfolios. But they can be very bad choices for other portfolios, e.g. in terms of risk exposure to specific markets, industries, currencies, etc. or in terms of your investment goals and many more factors like these.

For the Optarix US portfolio we are considering to start new positions in either People's United Financal (PBCT) or Chevron (CVX) or both in the future. We may also choose to add to our positions that we hold in the other five stocks in the list.

Happy Investing!

Disclosure: We have positions in T, ABBV, CAH, XOM and BEN. We have no plans to initiate new or change existing positions in the next 48 hours.

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